Have you stepped out side today?? It's COLD! Wind chills have been in the teens and twenties, and it is a stark reminder that February is still solidly winter, no matter what it has felt like recently.

Another reminder has been the rogue snow flurries the past two days. We've had reports as far south as Tupelo, Pontotoc, even Duck Hill.  Photographing them has been difficult, because there is virtually zero available moisture, and they have been very small.

That will change Monday.

With a storm system moving in from Texas Monday afternoon, it becomes a chess match to figure out exactly where cold air, dry air, and warm air will be once the lift and moisture arrive.  Here's how we think it will play out.

Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s due to a strong Canadian airmass.  This chilly air is expected to linger in North Mississippi/Alabama through mid-day Monday. By Monday afternoon, the Texas system will start to lift warmer air northward, into central Mississippi.  This will also increase the amount of moisture, and the likelihood of precipitation. 

There will be a period, late Monday Afternoon/Evening, before the warm air arrives, where some rain/sleet/ice/snow mix could occur across North Mississippi/Alabama. This might sound like a cop-out, but it's hard to tell how much will fall, because it won't fall for long. Why? Once the warm air arrives, we will change over to all rainfall, and likely begin the melting process of whatever does stick.

Low temperatures Tuesday Morning should be a couple of degrees above freezing, (hopefully) contributing to the melting process, and allowing for (most) school to go on as-scheduled.  But, as I always say with possible school closures, I forecast the weather, and not human nature. You can never tell whether an administrator is going to choose to cancel classes or not based solely on the weather forecast, because other factors are at play.

In the images below, you can see our current thinking for this possible winter weather situation. Though we expect mainly rainfall, quick bursts of moderate sleet/snow are definitely possible. 

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